SE
Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. (SEI)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 delivered strong sequential growth: revenue $126.33M and Adjusted EBITDA $46.88M, with management noting a 31% QoQ revenue increase and 25% QoQ Adjusted EBITDA rise driven by Power Solutions ramp and Logistics momentum .
- Against S&P Global consensus, SEI beat Q1 revenue ($126.33M vs $116.28M*) and EPS (company prelim $0.14 vs consensus $0.115*; S&P shows 0.20 actual*, see discrepancy note below). EBITDA consensus was $45.62M*, while S&P’s “actual” EBITDA shows 34.84M*, below SEI’s GAAP EBITDA ($42.12M) and company Adjusted EBITDA ($46.88M) due to differing definitions; we anchor comparisons to S&P for estimates and flag methodology .
- Strategic catalyst: the AI data center JV was upsized to ~900 MW with an initial 7-year term; SEI holds 50.1%, partner 49.9%, and SEI contributed ~$86.4M in assets with the partner contributing ~$86M cash; JV-level financing term sheet up to ~$550M supports ~80% of CapEx—expanding average contract tenor to ~5.5 years and visibility into 2027 .
- Guidance unchanged for Q2 Adjusted EBITDA ($50–$55M) and introduced Q3 Adjusted EBITDA ($55–$60M); Power Solutions activity guidance raised to 440 MW in Q2 and ~520 MW in Q3, reinforcing near-term growth .
- Risk overhangs: tariff exposure (company Risk Factor disclosure) and shareholder litigation/class-action activity tied to the MER acquisition narrative; management articulated mitigation actions (domestic sourcing, in-house SCR components) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Upsized, longer-tenor AI data center JV: contract increased to ~900 MW with initial 7-year term; SEI owns 50.1%, operates the JV, and highlighted “Power-as-a-Service” economics competitive with baseload grid power. CEO: “The extended tenor… improves earnings visibility… The average tenor in our Power Solutions contract book now exceeds five years…” .
- Logistics strength and technology adoption: system activity up >25% QoQ; ~75% of locations equipped with both silo and top-fill systems, “effectively doubling our earnings potential at the individual wellsite level” .
- Capacity secured despite tight supply chain: SEI added ~330 MW of 16.5 MW turbines (delivery mainly 2H26), lifting operated fleet to ~1,700 MW (net ~1,250 MW to SEI); SEI remains ~70% contracted, with ~500 MW open to bid for opportunities emerging in late 2026 .
What Went Wrong
- Tariff/macro exposure: new baseline tariff regime could raise input costs; SEI disclosed risk factors and CFO quantified potential tariff impact on the latest 330 MW order as “limited to 5%” of total cost, with ability to pass-thru where needed and in-house SCR manufacturing to mitigate .
- Customer concentration risk: JV upsizing with a single hyperscaler increases reliance on a few large customers; management acknowledged diversification goals while balancing scale/tenor benefits .
- Litigation overhang: a March 2025 class-action filing alleges misleading statements tied to MER; SEI states suit is without merit and intends to defend; multiple press releases by law firms amplify headline risk .
Financial Results
Consolidated Results vs Prior Periods
Notes: Management stated Q1 2025 revenue rose 31% sequentially and Adjusted EBITDA rose 25% sequentially .
Estimates Comparison (S&P Global)
Values marked with an asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global. Methodology differences: S&P’s “actual” EBITDA is standardized and can differ from company-reported GAAP EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA .
Segment Breakdown (Q1 2025)
KPIs and Activity
Liquidity: As of March 31, 2025, SEI had $16.7M cash and cash equivalents, no revolver borrowings, and ~$49.4M borrowing base availability . As of December 31, 2024, SEI had $160M total cash (including restricted), and $325M in outstanding borrowings .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Strategic positioning: “By using best in class gas turbines… our model is akin to a fixed capacity payment with a variable commodity price input via natural gas… We can remain economically competitive with the grid, offer visibility to long term power costs and provide built in backup…” — CEO .
- Logistics momentum: “Approximately 75% of our locations were equipped with both our legacy sand silo system and a top fill system… effectively doubling our earnings potential at the individual wellsite level.” — CEO .
- Financing and earnings visibility: “We… are negotiating definitive documentation for a senior secured term loan facility of up to $550,000,000 to support roughly 80% of the forecasted CapEx requirements of the JV… At full deployment, we see potential for the total company to generate $575,000,000 to $600,000,000 of annual run rate adjusted EBITDA on a consolidated basis… net to Solaris ~$440,000,000 to $465,000,000.” — CFO (run-rate scenario) .
- Tariffs mitigation: “Maximum potential tariff impact is limited to 5% of the total cost... To the extent higher capital costs are realized, we expect ability to pass those along...” — CFO .
Q&A Highlights
- Demand and contracting: Management confident uncontracted assets will be placed in medium/long-term contracts across data centers and industrial loads; spot capacity (5–10% of fleet) targeted for emergency/high-margin situations .
- Supply chain: Larger turbine frames effectively sold out; SEI secured 16.5 MW units via “bold” decision-making and OEM relationships; lead times ~12–18 months at current size classes .
- Margin profile: Data center vs industrial pricing similar; scale efficiencies yield slightly higher margins in large installations .
- Permitting: SEI supporting customer Title V permits and deploying SCRs to meet stringent NOx targets; mgmt sees compliance achievable .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 beats: Revenue beat vs consensus ($126.33M actual vs $116.28M*); EPS beat vs consensus (company preliminary $0.14 vs $0.115*; S&P shows $0.20 actual*). EBITDA: consensus $45.62M*, S&P “actual” $34.84M*, below SEI GAAP EBITDA $42.12M and Adjusted EBITDA $46.88M, reflecting definitional differences; we anchor to S&P for estimate comparisons and note methodology .
- Forward estimates: Consensus implies continued growth through Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 (Revenue rising to ~$164.56M* in Q4 2025; EBITDA consensus ~$69.15M* in Q4 2025), consistent with mgmt activity guidance ramp to ~520 MW in Q3 . Values marked with an asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Near-term setup: Solid sequential momentum with an unchanged Q2 Adjusted EBITDA guide ($50–$55M) and new Q3 guide $55–$60M, underpinned by Power Solutions MW growth to ~440 in Q2 and ~520 in Q3 .
- Structural story: Upsized 900 MW, 7-year AI JV materially extends contract tenor and visibility; JV financing (up to ~$550M) de-risks capital intensity and supports ~80% of JV CapEx .
- Logistics engine: Technology-led share gains (top-fill + silo) and electrified fleet continue to fund Power Solutions growth, with >25% sequential activity lift in Q1 .
- Risk management: Tariff exposure disclosed with mitigation (domestic OEM, pass-thru, in-house SCR); watch policy changes and potential cost creep; litigation headlines persist but mgmt plans vigorous defense .
- Diversification track: Customer concentration elevated following JV upsizing; monitor contracting of ~500 MW open capacity and progress with new industrial/data center customers to balance risk .
- Liquidity: No revolver draws and ~$49.4M borrowing base availability at quarter-end; amendments to term loan/revolver provide flexibility for JV and financings .
- Trading implications: Near-term catalysts include JV financing close, contracting of open MW, Q2/Q3 activity realization, and tariff/permit updates; narrative remains tied to execution on Power-as-a-Service scale and diversification .
Values marked with an asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.